Well, they did the thing, folks. Georgetown absolutely worked Marquette on Wednesday afternoon by a final score of 68-49 to set up a revenge match with Villanova today at 12pm ET. Patrick Ewing got his first win in the Big East Tournament as a coach, and the Hoyas executed their game plan to perfection: play defense without fouling, dominate the boards, and feed the rock inside to Qudus Wahab. They held Marquette to 36% shooting from the field and just 21% from deep all while dominating the rebounding margin, winning that battle 50-32. To be frank, that’s absurd. Your Georgetown Hoyas (10-12, 8-9 Big East) will now be looking to knock off yet another foe they could not overcome during the regular season in the Villanofun Wildcats. With that being said, let’s take a look at Jay Wright’s suburban program.
Villanova finished the regular season as Big East Regular Season Champions yet again with a 16-5 record overall and an 11-4 record in conference play. Per usual, Jay Wright has his squad locked into yet another NCAA Tournament, but this time around there may be some turbulence along the way. The Wildcats closed their season in an odd manner, finishing 3-2 in their last five with losses to Butler and Providence, both on the road. However, one absolutely massive component to all of this – the Wildcats lost starting guard and co-Big East Player of the Year Collin Gillespie in their win against #17 Creighton and then lost another starting guard, Justin Moore, in their loss to Providence. It’ll certainly be interesting to see how Jay Wright has prepared his team for the BET without their two primary guards.
In the one game Villanova played after the devastating injury to Gillespie, the Wildcats gave significant time to former five-star recruit Bryan Antoine and Chris Arcidiacono. Unfortunately for us Hoyas fans, that last name is all too familiar. Yes, Chris is in fact the brother of former Nova standout point guard and current Chicago Bulls point guard Ryan Arcidiacono. Without his usual backcourt, I would expect Jay Wright to roll with a duo involving any of Antoine, Arcidiacono, or junior guard Brandon Slater, who is used mainly as a defensive spark off the bench. Nevertheless, Villanova remains the #1 seed in the Big East and a heavy favorite against yours truly later today, as the Cats opened as -9.5 favorites last night.
While I’d prefer not to talk about those pre-COVID pause Hoyas, it’s my obligation to report the facts, and therefore I will. In the first meeting between these two, Georgetown played a stellar first half before (in true Georgetown fashion, I’ll say) inevitably blowing the entire game away in the second half and somehow losing by 13 points, failing to even score twenty points in the second half. In that meeting, what kills Georgetown in just about every loss remained true: they didn’t dominate on the glass, they turned over the ball at an absurd rate, and they got into foul trouble. All of these compiled on top of the fact that Villanova is simply a significantly more talented team, but I digress.
In the second meeting, the post-COVID pause Hoyas played a fantastic game, in my humble opinion. They trailed by just two at halftime and stuck with a full-strength Wildcats team for just about the entire game. They may have lost by ten, but if you ask anyone who actually watched the game, they’d definitely agree it was a much closer contest than the score reflects. In the end, the Hoyas’ decision to put Chudier Bile on Jermaine Samuels (a man not necessarily known for his offensive prowess) proved costly. Samuels absolutely exploded for 32 points with six made threes on seven attempts.
Now, let’s take a look at some of the keys for our Hoyas later today if they plan on continuing their Cinderella run as the 8th seed in the Big East tournament. KenPom ranks Villanova as the tenth best overall team, but where they truly excel is in the fundamentals of the game. The no-fun Wildcats rank 3rd in TO%, 2nd in Steal%, 8th in offensive efficiency, and 23rd in FT% nationally. Now, I understand that much of their success this season was dependent on Collin Gillespie and his elite play, but let’s not forget this is still Villanova and Jay Wright. They find ways to win, whereas (in the past few years, at least) Georgetown seems to be a team that finds ways to lose.
It’ll be key for the Hoyas to control the glass early and often. If there’s one thing the Hoyas need to do extremely well, it’s to box out and grab as many defensive rebounds as possible. With an offense as potent as Villanova’s, Georgetown cannot afford to give away double digit second chance points.
Another key for the Blue and Gray will be the other co-Big East Player of the Year on Villanova’s roster, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl. Oh, you thought this game would be easy? Yeah, not gonna happen. Villanova’s got not one, but TWO Big East Players of the Year. While Robinson-Earl is a fantastic player, the Hoyas mostly kept him in check in both previous meetings, particularly due to the sheer size and strength of Qudus Wahab and Timothy Ighoefe down low. It will be essential for the Hoyas to continue this strategy, especially with Gillespie and Moore missing, as I expect Jay Wright will want to lean on his more proven options on the court.
At the end of the day, this is Villanova and Jay Wright. Sorry to say, while they may not be an urban school, they most certainly are a Fortune 500 company. Georgetown will have to bring the same energy on defense as they did during yesterday’s scrap against Marquette, but they need to be more polished on the offensive end. Look for the rebounding and turnover margins to dictate who wins and who goes home in this one.
John’s Prediction: Villanova 74, Georgetown 67
Look, I love my Hoyas as much as anyone. They played a great game Wednesday afternoon against Marquette, and I’d love to see them pull out another win against a short-handed Villanova team on Thursday afternoon. In my eyes, it won’t happen. I think the Hoyas come out flat offensively on short rest and fail to take advantage of the opportunity that’s in front of them. In a classic “It’s not you, it’s me” scenario, I’m taking Villanova simply because this program has let me down way too many times for the heart to handle. I’d go nuts if they got it done, but I feel as though the storyline and energy behind Georgetown is primed for a letdown. Sorry.
Jacob’s Prediction (16-6 on the season): Villanova 65, Georgetown 60
Fans of offense best turn off the TV for this one. Georgetown didn’t exactly light up the scoreboard against Marquette, but the Hoyas’ above-average defense and the Golden Eagles’ atrocious shooting allowed the good guys to coast to an easy victory. As for the Wildcats, their offense will not be anywhere close to where it was with Gillespie and Moore at the helm. With all this in mind, I’m predicting an ugly game where neither team is able to separate themselves from the other. And at the end of the day, I still have to pick Villanova over Georgetown in a close game. I’m preemptively saying the zebras will do everything in their power to help the Wildcats win. Hoping it doesn’t happen, but nobody works the refs like Jay Wright. Even with Wednesday’s convincing victory over Marquette, I don’t have as much faith in my Hoyas as some other members of the fanbase.
Will’s Prediction (16-6 on the season): Georgetown 65, Villanova 60
This is almost certainly going to backfire on me, but to hell with it. As Jacob and John said, the Hoyas are almost certainly gassed, their offensive performance was already uninspiring, and despite the injuries, they’re still facing freaking Villanova. I get it. I’m tempted to pick against us too, but fortune favors the bold, and I’ve got a bet with Jacob for our pickems this season with the prize being a classy beer stein from the Tombs, and I really want to win it. But I digress. On to why I picked us.
Yesterday, we saw a dominant performance from Georgetown’s centers. Both Wahab and Ighoefe were huge presences, and if there’s anywhere where Nova is weak, it would be at the center position. It’s a tall order, but if the tandem of Qudus and Iggy can bully Villanova’s undersized fives as they beat down Marquette’s frontcourt today, that can go a long way. In addition, Villanova is now decimated at point guard, losing their top two guards. In the games since they’ve lost Gillespie, they’ve still been a good team, but they look shell-shocked. With having weaknesses at two major positions for tomorrow (despite the hordes of talent everywhere else), I would pause before betting on Villanova. Also, if John Fanta feels good about the Hoyas, I feel good about the Hoyas. It’s tough to beat a team three times in one season. I have a suspicion that the Hoyas are just going to pull this one out.
