For the first time in years (maybe decades), there is a game more important than the Super Bowl on Super Bowl Sunday. Unfortunately for the NFL, the suddenly rolling Georgetown Hoyas will take on the #14 Villanova Wildcats at the Wells Fargo Center tomorrow. The Hoyas have won two straight and are playing their best basketball of the season going into their toughest matchup thus far.
Meanwhile, Jay Wright has overcome Villanova’s early struggles and the Wildcats look like a well-oiled machine per usual. Villanova is undefeated in Big East play and has not lost since their epic battle at the former #1 Kansas on December 15, 2018. While this year’s squad is certainly not as talented or deep as last year’s team that steamrolled its way to a national title, Villanova is dangerous from deep and incredibly versatile.
But this Georgetown team isn’t the same squad that lost to Villanova twice last year by a combined total of 56 points. And the reason for that is simple: Patrick Ewing has done a remarkable job of developing his three top freshmen. And this team will go as far as they carry them.
However, Georgetown’s primary concern tomorrow should be three-point defense. The Hoyas rank 209th in the country in three-point defense (allowing opponents to hit 34.8% from deep) and that is the exact area where the Wildcats have been doing most of their damage in Big East play. This must be concerning for Ewing as Villanova is 12-1 when they hit 12 or more threes in a game. Furthermore, Villanova has 5 players averaging over 37% from three. The Hoyas need to defend the arc as if their lives depend on it, or this game could get ugly.
Senior guard Phil Booth has been on a ridiculous shooting tear of late as well. Booth is averaging 21.5 points per game in Villanova’s 8 Big East games. Booth is shooting 41.8% overall from three-point range as well. What makes Booth so dangerous is his patience and ability to hit contested outside shots. In the clip below, notice the lack of panic in Booth as he waits out the hedge and bodies his man. Next, he sets his feet so quickly that the defender barely has any time to react. That’s a deadly combination.
Do not be surprised to see Ewing utilize Jagan Mosely for extended periods of time on Booth. Mosely matches up well size-wise with Booth (they are both 6-foot-3 and Mosely weighs 20lbs more) and is Georgetown’s most effective perimeter defensive player. Mosely has also tremendously improved his perimeter play as he’s shooting 41.2% from three and has developed a nice rapport with star center Jessie Govan.
Eric Paschall is Booth’s partner in crime as he has averaged 20 points per game in Big East play. Paschall is a stretch four who knocks down threes at a 37.6% clip. Paschall is a match-up nightmare for Georgetown. Plain and simple. Paschall’s stature is flat-out intimidating as he stands at 6-foot-8 and weighs about 255lbs. He utilizes his versatility as well as any big man in the country in the sense that he can burn opponents from deep, off dribble penetration, or in the post.
Josh LeBlanc will have his hands full defensively guarding Paschall. LeBlanc is coming off his best offensive performance since becoming a Hoya, scoring 17 points on 8-11 from the field in Georgetown’s 80-73 win over Xavier. He added three steals and two blocks in that game as well. But Josh has struggled staying out of foul trouble in Georgetown’s previous two games, tallying four fouls against St. John’s and three against Xavier. The Hoyas cannot afford for LeBlanc to pick up two early fouls as no one else matches up well on Paschall.
Villanova does not have a forward or center who has the physicality of defensive capability of slowing down Jessie Govan this game. Jessie struggled against Xavier as he never found his offensive rhythm, but Govan should be the focal point on offense in this contest. By working through Govan, the Hoyas can force Villanova’s defense to collapse, thus opening up opportunities for their young guards on the perimeter
James Akinjo and Mac McClung need to rise to the occasion once again. Akinjo’s decision-making has been nothing short of splendid since Georgetown’s loss to Creighton and he should have an edge offensively over Villanova’s Collin Gillespie. McClung’s offensive game is still reliant on his ability to hit threes, but his mid-range capabilities were on full display against Xavier as he is beginning to feel more confident creating chances for himself and his teammates off the dribble. But if McClung is feeling it from deep, watch out.
As I am sure you can tell from my breakdown above, Ewing’s focus must be on the defensive end going into this game. Georgetown sports the top offense in the Big East in regards to points per game and assists, but their Achilles heel has been consistent defense. The Hoyas’ defense even allowed Xavier, a putrid three-point shooting team, to hit 12-25 from downtown. Look for Ewing to overemphasize defending the three-point line, forcing Villanova to play within the arc.
The whole college basketball world is picking Villanova to run away with this game. You better believe Ewing is going to use that as motivation. Contrary to popular belief, the “same old Hoyas” mantra does not apply to this group. They’re mentally tough, motivated, and, most of all, fearless. Let’s go take down Goliath.
Prediction: Georgetown 83, Villanova 82
