Sizing Up the Hoyas’ 2021 Non-Conference Schedule

Your reigning Big East Tournament Champions will be back on the hardwood in just a few days! Before everybody kicks into high gear, let’s take a moment to pause and set some realistic preseason expectations for the non-conference schedule. 

This year’s non-conference slate has a fairly different composition than previous seasons. For one, Ewing has almost entirely gotten rid of the ridiculously easy cupcake games. Even the low-major opponents on the schedule are teams that may be threats to upset the Hoyas. On the other hand, the top end of the non-conference schedule is fairly weak this season; it will be hard to find more than two non-conference Quad 1 possibilities.

The good news for fans is that this scheduling structure should lend itself to highly competitive games up until Big East play (think “Heart Attack Hoyas”). Still, I see three pretty clear categories of non-conference opponents Georgetown will face this year: should win handily, true tests, and contests where the Hoyas will be hunting for an upset. 

Category 1: Should Win Handily

(H)=Home (N)=Neutral (A)=Away

Dartmouth (H), American (H), Siena (H), Saint Joseph’s* (N), Longwood (H), UMBC (H), Howard (H)

Ewing has really bulked up this part of the schedule – and maybe for good reason. As mentioned, the bottom of this grouping has also been brought up pretty considerably. Nonetheless, Georgetown must win all of these games to be happy with results in this category. 

Dartmouth is projected to be the easiest contest on this list according to KenPom (ranked 281), but there were three opponents on the 2019-2020 schedule that were ranked even worse than this year’s Big Green. This means even the Hoyas’ home-opener has the potential to scare our young roster.

American University only played 10 games all of last season and lost leading scorer Jamir Harris to Seton Hall. The DC crowd may need to provide the energy if the Hoyas run away with this one.

The Siena Saints lost their two leading scorers from last year, but they do have a couple of tough tune-up contests before they face Hoyas. Fans may want to check out Siena’s game against St. Bonaventure (who may appear in the AP Poll this fall) on November 9 to get a sense of how good this team may be.

Longwood struggled in the Big South last year, but Leslie Nkereuwen is the player to look out for. The junior forward seems to be the rising star for the Lancers after shooting a very high 64% eFG last season.

UMBC gave Georgetown a scare in its home opener last year when the Hoyas escaped with an eight-point victory. Dante Harris will need to lock down pesky 5’ 2” Darnell Rodgers who led the Retrievers in scoring last time the two teams met. 

Howard will likely be the worst team the Hoyas play this year. On the sideline, the Bison do bring in Kenny Blakeney who previously worked as an assistant at Notre Dame, but they also lose the on-court production of former five-star prospect Makur Maker.

Saint Joseph’s may play the Hoyas in the second round of the Wooden Legacy Classic depending on the outcomes of the first-round games. KenPom only projects the Hawks to earn a 6-12 record in A10 league play. Needless to say, Georgetown would be much happier to get a stab at Southern Cal instead.

Category 2: True Tests

South Carolina (A), Syracuse (H), TCU (H)

Georgetown should realistically shoot to go 2 for 3 in these games. These opportunities provide the meat of the non-conference schedule and are matchups that may even rise to the Quad 2 level. 

The Gamecocks, like Georgetown, have a fairly young roster this season. Still, while South Carolina features nine newcomers, they also return their top three scorers from last year. In some ways, this game could be a wildcard; keep an eye out for how South Carolina performs in November.

‘Cuse will be Georgetown’s strongest opponent at home. Had this game been away, the Orange would easily fall into the Upset Hunting category, but a raucous crowd at Capital One Arena should tilt the scales just enough to call this more of a toss-up. As in any year, this rivalry game is anyone’s to win.

TCU made some moves in the transfer market, but how these pieces will fit together remains unknown. They were only projected to finish 8th (out of 10 teams) in the Big 12 Preseason Coaches Poll. This will likely be the most attainable win of the True Test category unless the Horned Frogs end up being a surprise competitor.

Category 3: Upset Hunting

San Diego State (N), Southern Cal (N)*

These are games that fans should not expect the Hoyas to win but would be massive resume boosters if the Blue and Gray pulled off the upset. This category is quite small this season, as Ewing opted against scheduling many top-tier opponents. 

For better or worse, San Diego State may be Georgetown’s only guaranteed shot at a Quad 1 win, and the Hoyas would be lucky to snag a W in California. The Aztecs did not lose a single member of last year’s roster to the transfer portal, and this year’s team features seven(!) seniors as well. SDSU will have two tough battles against BYU and Arizona State before facing off against Georgetown in the Wooden Legacy Classic, if fans are looking to see how stiff this competition really will be.

Southern Cal will only happen if results shake out a certain way in Anaheim. You may or not remember that the Trojans made the Elite Eight just last year. The good news is that if Georgetown ends up playing Southern Cal, the Hoyas will be the first true test for USC besides playing Temple in Philadelphia. 

All in all, this year’s non-conference schedule is certainly heavy on the mediocre opponents but should give this Hoyas roster time to gel and reload after last year’s Big East Tournament run. It is also important to remember that following this lineup of games will be the gauntlet of 20 Big East games straight through until March. I like what Ewing has set up here and particularly appreciate that pretty much every game gives fans something to be excited about.