Heading into year three of Patrick Ewing’s tenure as Georgetown’s head coach, expectations for the team couldn’t be any clearer: making the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2015.
As we learned last season, wins and losses in November and December can make the difference between the Big Dance and the lowly NIT. Non-conference losses to Loyola Marymount, SMU and Syracuse dug last year’s Hoyas a big hole that was impossible to escape.
So, what exactly does Georgetown have to do to put themselves in the conversation for a bid to the 2020 NCAA Tournament? Read on for a (perhaps overly) detailed look at Georgetown’s non-conference schedule and how the selection committee will view it.
This year, Georgetown looks to play a more difficult non-conference slate, albeit still with a few cupcakes. To get an idea of how the first two months will shake out, I will break down the Hoyas’ out of conference opponents into three categories: games Georgetown should win handily, upset possibilities, and real tests.
Category 1: Should Win Handily
This category has shrunk considerably from two years ago to this year, and now includes just four so-called “cupcake” games. No hard feelings towards the athletic department for including these on the schedule, for three of the four are local teams and the fourth (Central Arkansas) is the stipulated “campus game” included as part of the 2K Empire Classic.
Mount St. Mary’s and Central Arkansas at home are a good way to ease into the season, especially for building chemistry and giving the newcomers some in-game experience.
UMBC will ring a bell for basketball fans (they beat #1 seed Virginia in the first round of the 2018 NCAA Tournament) and is probably the best of these four opponents. A 21-13 record last year is not horrible, but it was in the relatively weak American East conference, and the Terriers lost their leading scorer and rebounder, Joe Sherburne, to graduation.
American brings back some pieces from last year’s 15-15 team, but Georgetown should be able to dominate inside the paint given the Eagles’ lack of size. Even a poor shooting performance from the Hoyas would likely not be enough to let American hang around.
Clearly, anything but four wins against these opponents would be a disappointment. Home games against mid-major should be easy victories, and any loss would be a big strike in the “bad-loss” column. Should disaster strike, the Hoyas wouldn’t be eliminated from NCAA tourney consideration by any stretch of the imagination, but they would surely have to add a few more marquee wins to offset the loss.
Category 2: Upset Possibilities
These are the type of games that were somewhat lacking in past years’ schedules. Not every game is going to be against a major-conference opponent but making sure the rest of the games that comprise the schedule are not just throw-away games is essential for strength of schedule metrics.
Georgia State was a 24-win team last year, and although they lose three seniors who contributed, this game’s spot on the schedule could give cause for concern. The Hoyas host the Panthers on Sunday, Nov. 17, sandwiched between a home tilt with Penn State and a trip to New York for the 2K Empire Classic. It’s a cliché that’s been repeated time and again, but Georgetown can’t afford to overlook this one.
UNCG is a stout opponent that could even make a case for inclusion in category 3 as a “true test” game. The Spartans play out of the very solid Southern Conference, and almost attained an at-large bid to the Big Dance last year on the strength of their 29-7 record and a final NET ranking of 68. Samford also comes from the SoCo, and despite a less successful 2018-2019 season (final record of 17-16), the Bulldogs lost just one player who contributed significant minutes last year and will likely be much improved as a result. Good on Georgetown for scheduling two Southern Conference opponents who won’t be pushovers.
SMU is a tough team to judge coming into the year. A losing record (15-17) last year is nothing to be proud of, and the Mustangs finished an abysmal 9th in the AAC. Still, SMU did beat the Hoyas in Washington last December, and thus warrant consideration in this category based on that alone. This game will be played in Dallas and the second of a two-game road trip for Georgetown, so we will see how well Ewing’s team travels.
These four teams, though not from high-major conferences (with the possible exception of SMU), present a good measuring stick for the Hoyas. A Big East contender should go 4-0 in these contests, but a young team could certainly make enough mistakes to let one or more slip away. Additionally, all of these games have the potential to be quadrant 3 or perhaps even quadrant 2 victories (Don’t know what the quadrant system is? Click here to learn more.) and therefore beef up a tourney resume.
Category 3: True Tests
These games are the heart of any team’s non-conference slate; the toss-up games that will truly be remembered by the committee in March. This year, the Hoyas add marquee games as part of the 2K Empire Classic and a new Big East/Big 12 Crossover to go along with the annual Gavitt Games and Georgetown’s yearly bout with Syracuse.
Georgetown’s first real test will be a home matchup with Penn State as part of the Gavitt Tip-Off Games. The Nittany Lions were 14-18 last year but look to be better this year (they rank 43rd in Ken Pomeroy’s preseason ranks ) as dynamic small forward Lamar Stevens returns for his senior year.
The 2K Empire Classic, held at the familiar Madison Square Garden, is a marquee early season tournament and a large upgrade in competition over last year’s Jamaica Classic. In the first round, the Hoyas will play Shaka Smart and his Texas team who just missed out on the NCAA Tournament last year after a 21-16 campaign. Though the Longhorns lose their two leading scorers from last season, Smart is a great coach and will likely have his team playing well. A neutral-site win over Texas would be big for Ewing and company.
Win or lose, Georgetown will play the following day against either Duke or Cal. Playing Duke (which would likely require a win over Texas) would be a big boost for Georgetown’s strength of schedule because Duke is…well Duke. Though losing a trio of one-and-done’s, including Zion Williamson from last year’s team that reached the Elite 8, the Blue Devils look to be in the National Championship conversation as always. A nationally-ranked recruiting class that includes big man Vernon Carey will join the returning Tre Jones. Still, it may take time for the Blue Devils to gel as a team, perhaps giving the Hoyas a chance to sneak out a win should the two teams face off.
Cal is obviously not on the same level as Duke. The Golden Bears finished an abysmal 8-23 in 2018-2019, with just three wins in a weak Pac-12 Conference. They bring back almost their entire roster, but there’s still not of optimism around the program. Hopefully, the Hoyas will be playing Duke in the Empire Classic finals, for a matchup with Cal may very well downgrade this game to Category 2 status.
Playing at Oklahoma State will be the first true away game of the year for Georgetown. A perennial middle-of-the-road Big-12 team, the Cowboys face higher expectations for this year. This will be a battle of two programs looking to return to national prominence, and a welcome road test for the Hoyas before conference play begins.
Perhaps the most highly anticipated game of the year (and any year for that matter) will take place Dec. 14 as Georgetown hosts rival Syracuse. After a relatively down year (at least by Syracuse standards) that ended in a first round NCAA Tournament loss, the Orange will have some soul searching to do early in the year as they return just one of their top three scorers. In a game that will be played in D.C., the Hoyas may very well be favored, but that does not mean a win over Jim Boeheim’s team will come easy.
A 4-1 record is likely the best the Hoyas can hope for in these five games, especially given a potential matchup with Duke. The remaining four games could easily go either way, and thus notching just two wins would not be a complete disappointment. Still, the Hoyas would certainly like to notch three quality wins, and please, let one of them be Syracuse.
All in all, this year’s out of conference schedule gives Georgetown the chance to show just how much they’ve improved. It’s overly ambitious to expect no bumps in the road, but with a handful of quality opponents, one hiccup will not make or break the season. At the end of the day, 10 wins or above would certainly keep the Hoyas at the forefront of NCAA tournament consideration. Adding one or two more wins, however, would have the Hoyas in a good spot heading into the gauntlet that is Big East conference play.
For a detailed look at Georgetown’s competition in the Big East, be sure to check out our conference preview, which will drop later this week.
Ron Hunter is at Tulane now, no longer at Georgia State.
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