Let me set the scene.
Patrick Ewing walks out the tunnel in Madison Square Garden he’s walked out so many times before as a player, raising his arms for more cheers from the same city that cheered him on for 15 seasons. Ewing walks out onto the Madison Square Garden floor, leading his Georgetown team to take on Duke, the number one team in the country, in a prime-time matchup. After years of a long uphill grind back to relevance and contention, the most iconic player in Georgetown’s storied basketball tradition has, as a coach, taken his team back to the arena he called home for so many years to take on the best team in the country.
That just feels right.
I wanted to savor how special this moment is for the program, because it’s been a good while since the program has been playing at this level and with these kind of stakes. Coming off of a dominant takedown of #22 Texas, this Georgetown team showed just how much potential they have.
It’s time we buckle up, because this game is going to be a roller coaster of emotions unlike anything Hoyas fans have seen in a long, long time.
As the Hoyas prepare to take on the Duke Blue Devils, there’s a reason why Duke is ranked #1. They have a stacked team, and that’s not mentioning that they have a Hall of Famer as their coach. The Hoyas have beaten odds before; they blew out #22 Texas in last night’s semifinal by double digits.
As they move on to face Duke for the championship of the Empire Classic, let’s take some time to look at what the Hoyas are facing.
Tre Jones is Duke’s best player. A sophomore, Jones is Duke’s point guard and has proven to be very capable of running the offense. He’s got great vision, and always seems to be able to find one of his guys open. Although Jones has improved as a three-point shooter, he has yet to establish himself as a consistent threat, shooting just five of 17 from deep on the year.
Jones is also an adept on-ball defender, and this matchup should give Akinjo fits. At 6’2”, Jones has the clear size advantage on most point guards, including Akinjo. He’s used this length to his advantage, averaging almost two steals a game.
Duke’s center Vernon Carey is going to be a very interesting matchup to watch against Omer Yurtseven. Standing at 6’10”, 270lbs, he was Duke’s top recruit last year, and he’s a strong rebounder and good in the paint. In last night’s semifinal game against Cal, Carey scored a game and career-high 31 points to go along with 12 rebounds and four blocks.
As talented as Carey is, he has yet to face a center of Yurtseven’s skill and size. He’s longer than Carey, and Yurtseven has played well in scoring from the post. Carey’s also prone to foul trouble, so if Yurtseven can keep himself out of foul trouble, this matchup can favor the Hoyas.
Another freshman for Duke to watch for is Matthew Hurt. A wing, Hurt is tall but lanky, and is supposed to be a good three point shooter. However, Hurt’s been somewhat of a disappointment. While he’s made his 3-point shots (40% make rate on the year), he just hasn’t adjusted to the college game that much yet. Given that his game at this point is being Duke’s wing guy who spaces the floor by shooting threes, he’s vulnerable. It’s likely that Pickett will be on Hurt as his defender, which doesn’t bode well for Hurt, as Pickett’s length and athleticism has made him a formidable defender of the 3-point shot.
Cassius Stanley and Wendell Moore Jr. are both lanky wings that can be disruptive on defense, as the two average a combined 3.6 steals per game. If Georgetown rolls out the same starting line-up as the previous five games, Stanley, or perhaps Moore, will likely draw a matchup with Mac McClung. After leading the Hoyas in scoring each of the last two games, McClung will need to put the ball in the basket if Georgetown is to compete with Duke. Should Duke’s wings find success in forcing Mac into difficult shots, Georgetown could be in for a long night offensively.
So far this year, Duke has struggled to find success from three-point range, shooting just 31.9% from deep on the year. A big part of these woes can be attributed to the cold shooting of Alex O’Connell, who recently was benched in favor of Moore. A 38.9% career three-point shooter, O’Connell has been in a rut of late, shooting just 25% on the year, including a combined 0 for six in Duke’s last two outings. Stretch four Joey Baker has filled in the role of marksman off the bench, knocking down five of 12 three-point attempts on the year. Georgetown will need to keep tabs on both O’Connell and Baker to prevent either from heating up and making the Hoyas pay.
The Blue Devils and the Hoyas are actually very similar matchups. Both teams use similar pieces and play a similar brand of up-tempo basketball. They both attack the rim, and both have struggled with shooting the three. Duke’s recent struggles from three has hampered their offensive game, but this year’s Duke squad is a lockdown defensive team. So far this year, the Blue Devils have yet to allow an opponent to break the 70-point mark, something Georgetown will surely need to do if they are to win this one.
With that being said, Duke’s recent coldness from three could thaw anytime and they can get hot. Georgetown’s defense has shown now that it can shut down a three-point threat. Last night, Texas made eight 3-pointers in the first half. However, following half-time adjustments, Texas made just three in the second half. In fact, the Longhorns made just six field goals in the entire second half on 27 attempts. That’s the defense Hoyas fans have begged for for years, and that’s the defense the Hoyas need to bring tonight for all 40 minutes to have a shot at taking down Duke.
This game is going to be a matchup between the Hoyas’ high-powered offense, and Duke’s stifling defense. If the Hoyas want to take down the Blue Devils, it’s going to rest in the hands of their stars and some of their key reserves.
Yurtseven is the biggest piece for the Hoyas tonight. He’s already faced Duke before, thanks to the two years he spent at NC State.
For the Hoyas, it’s critical that Omer Yurtseven doesn’t get into foul trouble. He got into foul trouble against Texas last night, and although Wahab ably filled in, Yurtseven has the potential more than anyone else on the team to change the course of a game. His length and athleticism can give Duke fits, and can keep some of their top players in check.
James Akinjo will be another key player for the Hoyas. He’ll likely be matched up with Tre Jones, no easy task. However, if the Hoyas are to win this game, Akinjo must overcome the sputtering start he’s had to the season and show himself to be the dominant ball handler that Hoyas fans have seen him be.
Jamorko Pickett is also going to be key. His matchup with Hurt favors the Hoyas, and if the Hoyas can capitalize on Pickett’s ability to shut down Hurt’s three-point shooting AND Pickett shows the strong offensive game he had against Texas, he is going to be very formidable.
In addition, the Hoyas are going to need solid bench play to take down the Blue Devils. The bench had a strong game last night, especially Qudus Wahab who chipped in nine points and three rebounds after coming in due to Yurtseven’s foul trouble.
These stats tell the tale of the game. With four players scoring in double digits, no one player had carried the team. Ewing’s message of “‘I’ and ‘me’ isn’t going to win games, ‘we’ is” needs to be heeded again. In addition, the more scoring threats the Hoyas have, the better for Yurtseven, as they can pull away the double teams from him.
It’s certainly a tough road to take down the #1 team in the country, but last night’s game against Texas is cause for optimism. The Hoyas played with purpose, a strong defensive plan, and intensity. This effort must be present for all 40 minutes to take down Coach K and the Duke Blue Devils.
Will’s Prediction (4-1 on the year): Duke 80, Georgetown 73
The Hoyas are going to give the Blue Devils a run for their money, especially if they can replicate the bench performances they got last night. However, the Hoyas also need strong efforts from Akinjo, Yurtseven, and the rest of the starters, and getting all of these elements going at the same time hasn’t happened yet. Even last night, Akinjo had struggles and Yurtseven was in foul trouble the entire game. If the Hoyas aren’t firing on all cylinders, then it’s tougher to take down a team like this.
Jacob’s Prediction (5-0 on the year): Duke 77, Georgetown 72
It’s hard to see Georgetown playing as well as they did in last night’s second half, but I still expect the Hoyas to keep it close. Though Yurtseven should find success down low, Duke’s length at the guard and wing positions may limit the contributions of Georgetown’s backcourt. This will be the critical difference between a program-altering win and a tight loss for the Hoyas.
Dan’s Prediction (0-0 on the year): Georgetown 79, Duke 76.
This is all based on Omer Yurtseven being able to stay out of foul trouble. Even though Vernon Carey is a monster on the inside, he has yet to face an opposing player bigger and more skilled than him. I like Jamorko Pickett to stifle Hurt on the wing, LeBlanc to continue to be our Energizer bunny and for Mac to keep up his MSG heroics. Duke is loaded, but the Hoyas undeniably match up well against them. Ewing gets the biggest win of his coaching career and stuns the college basketball world.
