It’s that time again.
The Syracuse Orange and your Georgetown Hoyas will meet for the 96th time at 7pm inside the Carrier Dome.
There could not be a better time for Georgetown to snap their recent losing skid.
Ever since John Thompson declared Manley Fieldhouse officially closed, Georgetown vs. Syracuse has been one of the most heated rivalries in college basketball. On Friday, Patrick Ewing spoke to the history of the rivalry, saying, “We’ve been rivals for a lot of years, and this is an important game in my mind.” Syracuse leads the all-time series 51 to 44, but the two teams have split the last 10 meetings. Even more indicative of the recent parity between the two programs, each of the past six matchups have been decided by 10 points or less, with two games going to overtime. Last year in DC, the Hoyas played some of their best basketball of the season, defeating the Orange 89-79.
This time around, Syracuse enters the game not only as the home team, but also as the clear-cut favorite. The Orange sit at 6-2 overall and 1-1 in the ACC, but they hold few (if any) marquee victories to their name. They have barely skated by a few mid-major teams, including a one-point win over Bryant and a six-point win over Northeastern. Heck, it took overtime for the Orange to take care of a middling Buffalo team. Granted, I probably shouldn’t be one to talk, as Georgetown did lose to Navy (yikes) back in December. Syracuse’s best win of the young season was a 101-63 beatdown of Boston College, a team that holds an ugly 2-8 record (0-4 in the ACC).
On the flip side, Syracuse has no bad losses. Earlier this year, the Orange hung tough with #15 Rutgers, ultimately falling in the final minutes. Most recently, they suffered a narrow three-point defeat to a 6-2 Pittsburgh team. All this is to say that Syracuse is a difficult team to evaluate at this point in the season.
Offensively, the Orange present a well-rounded attack with five all five starters averaging double figures. ‘Cuse also shares the ball very well, averaging 18.3 assists per game as a team, good for 23rd in the country. Illinois transfer Alan Griffin leads the Orange at 16.4 points per game, while also pulling down 7.6 boards and dishing out 3.1 assists per contest. “I think the best player they have might be Griffin,” Patrick Ewing told the media on Friday. “He’s talented, he’s big, he’s athletic, [and] he can shoot.”
Sophomore forward Quincy Guerrier is also off to a spectacular start this season, averaging 16.1 points per game on 65% shooting. Senior forward Jamorko Pickett will likely handle the difficult task of guarding Guerrier. Against Butler, Pickett made several mental mistakes on the defensive end, which allowed the Bulldogs converted into easy baskets. That cannot happen against a talented and versatile player like Guerrier.
Luckily for Georgetown, Syracuse is a relatively poor three-point shooting team, making just 32% of their attempts from deep so far this season. In this week’s loss to Pitt, the Orange jacked up a season-high 38 three-point attempts, making 12 of them (31.6%). For most of this season, the Hoyas have struggled to guard the three-point line, often over-helping off shooters and giving up open looks as a result. While ‘Cuse may not be the best three-point shooting team, Georgetown must keep tabs on Griffin, Buddy Boeheim, and Joe Girard, as all three are not afraid to fire away and can heat up in a hurry.
The strength of this Syracuse team is their defense. The Orange give up an average of 67.3 points per game and rank 23rd in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency per Kenpom. That’s not great news for a Georgetown team that has struggled to score at times, particularly in the second half games. In their five Big East losses, the Hoyas have failed to reach 30 second-half points three times.
To beat Boeheim’s textbook 2-3 zone, Georgetown can’t be content to move the ball around the perimeter and settle for contested jumpers. I’d love to see Jamorko Pickett get some touches at the high post or the short corner. By all accounts, Pickett has been in a shooting slump, but he did dish out four assists against Butler. Perhaps the Hoyas could get some high-low action working between Pickett and Qudus Wahab. Another key to beating the zone will be to push the pace of the game. “You want to be able to create turnovers,” said Ewing, “and then get to the other end and score before they can get the zone set up.”
One interesting storyline to monitor will be the status of Syracuse forward Bourama Sidibe, who suffered a torn meniscus in ‘Cuse’s season opener. After returning to practice earlier this week, Sidibe felt discomfort in his knee and missed Wednesday’s game against Pitt. While the senior forward doesn’t offer a ton of offensive firepower, Sidibe did start all 32 games his junior season thanks to his length and shot-blocking prowess. If he is able to make his return on Saturday, I would expect Sidibe to come off the bench and see somewhat limited minutes.
The success of the ‘Cuse zone hinges on the play of their big men. Even if Sidibe does not play, the Orange still have the 6’10” Marek Dolezaj to provide rim protection in the middle. Fellow forward Quincy Guerrier measures in at just 6’7”, but he provides the muscle to Dolezaj’s length. Rebounding out of the zone can be a challenge, and Guerrier’s team-leading 9.4 rebounds per game help the Orange command the glass. Syracuse has only lost the rebounding battle twice this season; it’s not coincidence that those two games were ‘Cuse’s only two losses. Wahab and the rest of the Georgetown frontcourt should attack Boeheim’s bigs early and often in an attempt to get them in foul trouble. If the Hoyas can control the paint and win the rebounding battle, they’ll significantly improve their chances of pulling off the upset.
On paper, Syracuse may be the more talented team. But as always with this rivalry, emotions will be running high and anything can happen. If history has taught us anything, it’s that this game will more than likely be decided in the final minutes. Let’s hope the Hoyas’ experience playing in tight games finally pays off against their foes from up north.
Jacob’s Prediction (9-1 on the season): Syracuse 72, Georgetown 65
I know. I know. Hate me all you want, but I’m making this pick with my brain and not my heart. Syracuse isn’t a great three-point shooting team by any means, but they have a handful of guys who are capable of getting hot in a hurry. The outcome of this game may come down to whether ‘Cuse’s shots are falling, and I’ve seen the Hoyas give up far too many open looks from three this season to feel confident picking the good guys. That being said, I do think Georgetown has a realistic chance of proving me wrong and pulling off the upset. If Qudus Wahab can dominate the paint on both ends of the floor, the Hoyas could surprise me.
Will’s Prediction (8-2 on the season): Georgetown 72, Georgetown 65
Jacob’s New Year’s resolution was to be more positive about the team. In the last two games, he has picked against the Hoyas. I am calling him out.
Onto actual basketball matters. I actually harbor a disturbing degree of confidence that this team will pull it out at the Dome tomorrow. If there’s anything the recent history of the rivalry has shown us, it’s that the games are always going to be close, no matter the strength and skill level of the two teams.
All it takes is Syracuse having a cold night from beyond the arc (possible, as they’re a very streaky team, and both Boeheim and Girard are chuckers) and the Hoyas to clean up on the boards. Syracuse was outrebounded by a mediocre Pitt team, and the Hoyas have both Qudus Wahab and Jamorko Pickett, both of whom have been doing some serious cleaning of the glass lately. With Sidibe out (or likely seeing limited minutes), Syracuse’s defensive linchpin in the frontcourt is Marek Dolezaj. Dolezaj, to put it gently, is not a terribly intimidating presence. I’m predicting Qudus is going to have a monster night, and the Hoyas’ three-point shooting will be just enough to bust up the zone and help the good guys pull it out.
