After a short, yet somehow still disappointing, slate of non-conference games to open this unconventional season, the Hoyas will begin Big East play against #9 Villanova at 7 PM in McDonough Arena.
Georgetown (2-2) is coming off a blowout win against notoriously one of the worst teams in college basketball in Coppin State (ranked 335th by KenPom), which was preceded by back-to-back losses against a well-coached #11 West Virginia team and Navy in a buy game.
Villanova (4-1), on the other hand, has a much stronger resume, with wins against #13 Texas and #23 Arizona State, and a lone OT loss against a Virginia Tech program that is ranked 15th in the most recent AP poll.
Jay Wright’s squad is looking extremely efficient as always, and they have the numbers to back it up. Villanova has the 4th best offense and 22nd best defense in the nation according to KenPom. The team also ranks 13th nationally with a turnover rate of 13%, which is much better than Georgetown’s 24.8% (ouch).
The Wildcats are led by two preseason All Big East First Team stars in Colin Gillespie and Jeremiah Robinson-Earl, who are averaging 14.6 and 16.2 points per game, respectively. Robinson-Earl, who won Big East Freshman of the Year last season, has upped his scoring productivity significantly as a result of Saddiq Bey leaving for the NBA, and if the Hoyas want any chance of completing the upset, they are going to have to limit his output. Robinson-Earl has a complete skillset; he can take it down low, make a short jumper, and he even presents a threat from the outside off the pick-and-pop, which may be trouble for Qudus Wahab. Because of this, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Coach Ewing put out the small-ball lineup that he briefly introduced on Tuesday, which consisted of Jahvon Blair, Jalen Harris, Don Carey, Chudier Bile and Jamorko Pickett.
Besides those two, Villanova also has two more returning starters in sophomore guard Justin Moore and senior forward Jermaine Samuels. They add one significant newcomer in Tulane transfer Caleb Daniels, who sat out last season due to NCAA transfer rules.
Villanova brings an all-around offense, with four players averaging double figures, so the Hoyas must bring their A-game defensively. Georgetown does have the height advantage, with Villanova’s tallest player being Robinson-Earl who stands at six foot nine inches. This may offer an explanation as to why Villanova has a 10.5% block rate on their shot attempts, which ranks 208th in the nation. This figure favors the Hoyas, as they rank 74th defensively with an 11.7% block rate. Villanova will likely counter this by playing more on the perimeter, allowing their sharpshooters in Gillespie, Moore, Daniels and Cole Swider (who are all shooting above 35% from deep) to carry the burden offensively.
Last year, the Hoyas struggled to guard the three against the Wildcats. In the first game, Saddiq Bey made a career high eight threes in the 14-point away loss, while in Capital One they let Villanova shoot 40% behind the arc as a team. The Hoyas are off to a relatively good start defensively, currently ranked 62nd in three point defense. This is to be taken lightly, though, as all four opponents they have faced ranked in the bottom quartile in three point percentage last season. Communication and coordination will be key for a strong defensive outing against one of the best teams in the country, and after four games I would hope that there will be some improvement in the team chemistry.
The major key for a Hoya victory will be controlling the glass. Villanova has only been outrebounded in one game thus far, and as you might expect, it came in that overtime loss against the Hokies, in which the Wildcats were outrebounded 40-31. Qudus Wahab and Jamorko Pickett will be expected to continue their strong rebounding performances, especially after Pickett managed to bring down 19 boards against Coppin State.
Offensively, the Hoyas must find a way to limit turnovers. With a turnover rate that ranks 264th in the country, including 26 (!!) against a poor opponent in Coppin State, the Hoyas must value the basketball and seek to actually finish possessions with a good look. This starts with Jalen Harris. The primary ball handler for the Hoyas has a 33.2% turnover rate, and against a strong on-ball defender like Colin Gillespie, that simply will not slide.
That being said, the Hoyas are all but out of this game. If Coach Ewing can get the intensity out of his team that was shown in the second half against Coppin State and the majority of the game against West Virginia, they may have a chance at pulling off their first win against Villanova in two years and their first top ten win of Ewing’s tenure. Who knows, maybe the Hoyas will give us a little hope for Big East play?
Charlie’s Prediction (3-1 on the season): Villanova 79 Georgetown 68
Villanova’s high powered offense will simply be too much for Ewing and the Hoyas to handle. Similarly to how the WVU game went down, I think Georgetown will keep it close initially, but individual errors will prevent the team from closing any lead the Wildcats might have. Georgetown has yet to play a team with multiple consistent three-point shooters, and I also think Jeremiah Robinson-Earl will be too much for Qudus or Jamorko to handle on the floor. That being said, if they can limit unforced errors and win the rebounding battle, then there may be a chance at an upset here folks.
Jacob’s Prediction (4-0 on the season): Villanova 82, Georgetown 73
Jeremiah Robinson-Earl is good. Really good. My preseason pick for Big East Player of the Year, Robinson-Earl may not just be in contention for that award, but also National Player of the Year. As Charlie mentioned, the Hoyas don’t have a great option to guard Robinson-Earl; Wabab is not quick enough on the perimeter, but Pickett is not strong enough on the inside. The Wildcats also surround JRE with a number of dead-eye three-point shooters. Georgetown makes a habit of over-helping on defense, and that certainly won’t fly against a good three-point shooting team like ‘Nova. I think the Hoyas are going to give up a lot of points in this one, and I don’t think Georgetown’s offensive attack is consistent enough to keep pace.
Will’s Prediction (3-1 on the season): Villanova 73, Georgetown 63
The game will be closer than most people think, but then again, if Georgetown allows 27 three-point attempts tonight (the Hoyas’ average-per-game versus ‘Nova last season), I’ll be way, way off.
