On Sunday, your Georgetown Hoyas (5-8 overall, 3-5 Big East) travel to face the #3 Villanova Wildcats (11-2, 6-1). The Hoyas are riding high after notching back-to-back wins against Providence and #15 Creighton following a three-week COVID-induced hiatus. ‘Nova, on the other hand, is coming off their first loss of conference play, a 70-59 defeat at the hands of St. John’s.
Georgetown and Villanova have already met once this season on December 11, with the Wildcats overcoming an 18-point deficit to coast to a 76-63 victory. Will the Hoyas be able to flip the script this time around and continue their hot streak? We break down the keys to the game:
- Defend the three-point line. ‘Nova ranks 24th in the country with an average of 9.8 made three pointers per game. The Wildcats knock down their looks from beyond the arc at an impressive clip of 36.6%, led by junior guard Caleb Daniels at 42.9%. In the first meeting between these two teams, Villanova drained 15 three pointers, a key reason the Wildcats were able to turn the tide of the game in such rapid fashion. While it has been far from perfect, Georgetown’s three-point defense has looked much improved over the course of the last two victories. The Hoyas will need to turn in another impressive performance against the Wildcats’ trigger happy offense.
- Contain Collin Gillespie. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl may be the best player on this ‘Nova team, but Gillespie is the engine that makes the Wildcats run. In the loss to St. John’s, Gillespie struggled mightily, scoring just four points on 2 for 12 shooting and uncharacteristically turning it over six times. Dante Harris, who will likely matchup with Gillespie, was an unsung hero in the victory over Creighton, putting on a defensive clinic against one of the best guards in the country in Marcus Zegarowski. If Harris can make Gillespie uncomfortable and force him into another inefficient outing, the Hoyas’ chances of pulling off the upset skyrocket.
- Keep the Chudi train rolling. The emergence of Chudier Bile as a reliable contributor has been nothing short of remarkable. Over the last two games, Bile is averaging 18 points and 7.5 rebounds per game. Bile’s contributions cannot be summed up in a stat line, however, as his attacking mindset and frenetic energy have paid dividends for the Hoyas. All season, this Georgetown team has looked relatively devoid of players who can create their own shot. If Bile can be that guy, it opens up catch-and-shoot opportunities for Jahvon Blair and the rest of the Hoyas’ offense. Who knows how long this miraculous run will continue for, but I’m fully onboard the Bile train until proven otherwise.
- Adapt to the changes since the previous game in the series. The Hoyas have been on a nice little roll, with a two-game win streak that, given this season, feels like a ten-game winning streak. The first Georgetown-Villanova game best epitomizes the early struggles of the Hoyas. They blew an 18-point lead, and had some serious woes on defense, forcing only 7 turnovers against the Wildcats. In addition, Qudus Wahab did not score a single point in the second half. While Villanova likely won’t get off to the same sluggish start, Qudus seems to have refound his footing in the previous two games, in addition to the Hoyas forcing 15 turnovers against Creighton. Also of note is the shuffling at the point guard position. Dante Harris has taken over for Jalen Harris, who last played in December at that home Villanova game. Dante Harris has emerged as a strong facilitator and defended well against Villanova last time around, despite his size. In the last meeting, Jalen Harris was tasked with guarding the always-dangerous Collin Gillespie, and he struggled to defend Gillespie off the ball. A new defensive alignment with Dante Harris, given the absence of Jalen Harris for personal reasons, might prove to be more successful this time around. Ewing has also shortened his rotation in the time between games, rolling with a ten-man rotation in the first meeting against Villanova, while he has since tightened it up to eight players as of the Creighton game. Of those eight, only six played double-digit minutes. Simply put, this is a different Georgetown team. The rotation is a lot smaller, the offense looks different with the emergence of Bile and Blair as major factors, and the defense has been better. To have a shot at beating ‘Nova, it’s important that those changes we’ve seen the past two games stick.
Jacob’s Prediction (10-3 on the season): Villanova 82, Georgetown 73
Yes, I am picking against Georgetown once again. It’s not because I lack faith in these Hoyas either. As a matter of fact, I’ve liked a lot of what I’ve seen these last few games, and I expect much of that to continue. That being said, Villanova is in a different league than Providence and Creighton. Granted ‘Nova is coming off a loss to St. John’s, but the Red Storm are scorching hot and could take down anyone in the conference right now. There’s good reason that Villanova is ranked 3rd in the country, including the fact that the scoring can come from a lot of different places. Georgetown has improved defensively, but I think the sheer number of scoring options that the Wildcats have combined with their lethal three-point shooting will prove too much to handle. It’ll be closer than many expect, but Villanova will more than likely take care of business at home.
Will’s Prediction (9-4 on the season): Villanova 75, Georgetown 74
I think it’s going to be a close game, and in fact, I was leaning towards picking Georgetown for the upset. This is a completely different team, and I think the Hoyas have really become disciplined. However, I’m still not a complete believer in our three-point defense (it is… porous, to say the least), and the new-look Hoyas haven’t played against a team that’s as strong in all aspects of the game as Villanova is. This is going to be a heartbreaker, I can just feel it.
