Welcome back, UConn. We missed you oh-so-much. Not.
With the Huskies back in the Big East, Georgetown and UConn will meet as conference foes for the first time since 2013. The Hoyas are riding high after securing their fourth win in their last six games thanks to a 81-75 victory over Seton Hall. UConn, on the other hand, is heading in the wrong direction, After starting Big East play 4-1, the Huskies have hit a bit of a rough patch, losing five of their last eight games, including a recent 68-60 loss to #8 Villanova.
Will UConn right the ship and strengthen their case for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tournament? Or will the Hoyas continue to play spoiler and cannibalize the top of the Big East conference? Here are the keys to a Georgetown victory:
Keep UConn’s backcourt in check
UConn has one of the strongest backcourts in the conference, with a guard trio of RJ Cole, Tyrese Martin, and James Bouknight.
Bouknight is one of, if not the best, players in the entire conference. He missed a month of action rehabbing an elbow injury that required surgery. It’s still a mystery how Charlie Moore made the Preseason All-Conference team instead of Bouknight. Bouknight has been phenomenal this season when healthy, putting together a statline of 20.1 points per game, 5.8 rebounds per game, while shooting 45.5% from the field, with a Player Efficiency Rating (PER) of 25.6. For context, a league average player would have a PER of 15.
Bouknight does the little things well. He has a great scoring touch, phenomenal athleticism, and strong cutting ability. He’s a terror to try and guard in space and will present a tough matchup for whichever Georgetown defender is on him, injury be damned.
Bouknight put together a solid statline in his second game in six weeks on Saturday against Villanova, recording 21 points and 10 rebounds. However, the majority of the scoring came early, with 14 points in the first 12 minutes. Dan Hurley left Bouknight in for 36 minutes, and he was visibly gassed by the end of the game- he made six of his first seven shots but then missed nine of his final 10 attempts.
It’d be nice if Dan Hurley left Bouknight in for 36 minutes again and wore him out again.
The rest of UConn’s core backcourt are no slouches either. Howard transfer RJ Cole has shown a deft passing touch, although he’s struggled when forced to be the primary scoring option. Blair and Pickett will be familiar with Cole, as Howard squared off with Georgetown each of Patrick Ewing’s first two seasons as coach. Cole was quite impressive in those two contests, averaging 22.5 points and 7 assists. He’ll surely be looking to replicate those numbers in his return to DC.
Tyrese Martin rounds out the bunch, averaging 12.3 points and 7.6 rebounds per game. At 6’6”, 215 pounds, Martin is a strong combo guard who presents another awkward matchup for the Hoyas. The UConn backcourt is truly a three-headed monster, with any one of Martin, Cole, or Bouknight capable of having themselves a night.
Push the pace. UConn likes to play slow. Very slow. According to KenPom, the Huskies rank 319th in the county in Adjusted Tempo. Perhaps more interestingly, UConn is just 1-5 in conference play when they allow 70 or more points to their opponents. On the other side of things, the Hoyas are 4-2 when they score 70+ points. Put simply, Dan Hurley does not want Tuesday night’s game to turn into a shootout.
In order to run up the scoreboard, Georgetown will need to get out in transition and beat UConn down the floor. If the Huskies are allowed to set up defensively, they are a formidable force, especially down low. Led by Isaiah Whaley, UConn averages an impressive 5.6 blocks per game, good for 6th in the nation and 1st in the Big East. The Hoyas don’t want to get pigeonholed into playing through their bigs in the halfcourt and should instead look to turn the game into a track meet. In a battle of contrasting styles, whichever team dictates the pace of the game will likely emerge victorious.
Win the battle on the boards. Georgetown had a long-running tradition of being “Big Man U”, and tonight’s game should provide the Hoyas plenty of chances to reaffirm that reputation.
UConn is one of the worst defensive rebounding teams in the entire Big East. In conference play, the Huskies have been averaging just 24.2 defensive rebounds per game, good for 9th in the conference. On the other hand, the Hoyas have averaged 27.7 defense rebounds per game in conference play, leading the Big East. That margin is small, but factor in the fact that the Hoyas are the third best offensive rebounding team in the Big East (averaging 11.8 ORB per game in conference play), and that margin can provide the Hoyas with extra opportunities to score.
Don’t let the Huskies get hot from deep. UConn isn’t overly reliant on the three-point field goal, attempting just 20.4 per game compared to 24.1 per game for the Hoyas. That being said, allowing the Huskies to get going from beyond the arc is a surefire way to ensure a loss. In games that UConn shoots 40% or better from beyond the arc, the Huskies are a remarkable 6-0 on the season. That’s certainly cause for concern when the Hoyas have the worst three-point defense in the Big East, allowing conference opponents to knock down just over 38% of their triples. Limiting UConn’s efficiency from three-point land doesn’t guarantee a victory, but it’s a must if Georgetown wants any chance of extending their win streak to three games.
Jacob’s Prediction (13-4 on the season): UConn 72, Georgetown 69
Once again, UConn presents a less than ideal matchup for the Hoyas. The Huskies’ backcourt brings a unique combination of skill, length, and athleticism that I don’t think Georgetown has the ability to defend. But hey, I said pretty much the same thing before the Seton Hall game and look where that got me. The Hoyas are playing well, so I think they’ll once again keep things close, but Georgetown fans are long overdue for a classic letdown game. I certainly hope I’m wrong, but I’m riding with the law of averages on this one.
Will’s Prediction (12-5 on the season): Georgetown 72, UConn 69
Bouknight is electric, but he was visibly fatigued coming back from injury. In addition, when UConn was without Bouknight, they looked decidedly unimpressive, going 4-4 in his absence. Hurley’s rotations are uninspired and despite some strong pieces, if Bouknight struggles, UConn will struggle as well.
At center, the Huskies have the 6-9 Isaiah Whaley taking up most of the minutes, with a rotation of Tyler Polley and Adama Sanogo at power forward, both of whom are also 6-9. This should be a game in which Qudus Wahab should be able to feast in the paint, and I’m calling it- he’ll be on double-double watch. UConn has been a solid blocking team, but they haven’t had to go up against a center with the length and skillset of Qudus yet.
I’m betting the Hoyas will eke out yet another win tonight, before losing to DePaul on Saturday.
