After a season in McDonough filled with its highs and lows, Georgetown will play its final home game of the year when they face Xavier on Tuesday at 7 PM.
Georgetown, now 8-11 (6-8 Big East), will be looking to notch back-to-back wins after a sloppy victory against DePaul in Chicago. The Hoyas have been playing much better basketball following their COVID pause, touting a 5-3 record with solid wins against #14 Creighton and Seton Hall.
Xavier (13-5, 6-5 Big East) will also be looking to have two wins in a row, after they pulled off the upset against Creighton on Saturday to bolster their tournament hopes. The Musketeers have struggled in conference play after starting 7-0 on the season, which included a good win against Oklahoma. If they want any chance of making the tournament, they must win this game.
This will be the first matchup between the two teams, and on paper it looks like it will be a close one: KenPom has the projected score as 73-71 and Haslametrics has it at 71.6-70.7, with Xavier being the statistical winner in both. Both teams have different strengths offensively, though. Georgetown has been very efficient from three-point land, shooting 36.3%, while Xavier shoots a slightly lower 33.5%. Xavier, on the other hand, converts 55.1% of the time on two-point field goals, much higher than Georgetown’s 46.5%. As expected, the Musketeers are also much more careful with the ball compared to the Hoyas, repping a turnover rate of 16.1% compared to Georgetown’s 22.6% (yikes).
Xavier’s offense is led by forward Zach Freemantle and guard Paul Scruggs. Freemantle is currently 4th in scoring in the Big East, averaging 16.9 points per game. He’s a double-double machine who can score in the paint and also from deep, albeit inconsistently. While it’s important that Wahab and Ighoefe are able to limit Freemantle’s scoring opportunities, he is not the only threat. Senior guard Paul Scruggs has been on fire recently, scoring 22 points and 23 points in his last two games. Scruggs is a floor general who has the ability to score from all three levels and drop dimes for his teammates, leading the conference with 6.1 assists per game. He also is 33rd in the country with an impressive 33.9% assist rate, which is a measure of what proportion of teammates’ made field goals an individual assists on. Georgetown, likely Dante Harris specifically, must contain him if they want any chance of getting stops on the defensive end. Xavier’s other offensive threat to look out for is guard Adam Kunkel, who takes a high volume of threes. He also hit this buzzer beater to lift the Musketeers over Marquette.
For Georgetown, cleaning up the turnovers will be key, especially coming off a 19 turnover game against a poor DePaul squad. It will surely help that Jahvon Blair will be back after sitting out Saturday’s win in Chicago due to a coaches’ decision. Blair, besides being the Hoyas’ leading scorer, also has the team’s lowest turnover rate. Georgetown will also be looking to score more from outside as opposed to in the paint, as Xavier boasts a block percentage of 10.9% and limits their opponents to a two-point field goal percentage of 45.3% (30th in the country). The Hoyas also must take advantage on the glass, and it will be crucial that Wahab and/or Ighoefe are able to out rebound Freemantle.
Both teams are playing solid basketball as of late, but Xavier might come out with a little extra grit as they are fighting to get off the bubble for an at-large tourney bid. Georgetown has the ability to win this, but the inevitability of blowing a lead is always looming. Expect this one to come down to the wire, folks.
Charlie’s Prediction: Georgetown 76 Xavier 73
Me, picking a Georgetown win? I know, but honestly I feel pretty confident about this game. Other than the turnovers, the Hoyas looked pretty good against DePaul even without Blair, and I think Dante and Qudus will be able to contain Scruggs and Freemantle. Even if Qudus gets into foul trouble the Hoyas still have Ighoefe and even Pickett or Bile to guard him. The key to the game will be turnovers, and if Georgetown can keep it under their conference worst 16.2 per game (preferably below 11 or 12), they can come out with a solid win and dampen Xavier’s tournament dreams.
Jacob’s Prediction (15-4 on the season): Xavier 74, Georgetown 70
Xavier fans are the absolute worst. I don’t know why, but they are. At least we only have to play them once this year.
That being said, I don’t feel overly confident about the Hoyas’ chances of sending the Musketeers back to Cincy with a loss. Charlie put it best in saying that Xavier has a lot to play for in terms of fighting for their lives in the race for an NCAA Tournament at-large bid. Additionally, players like Paul Scruggs scare me. He does it all for Xavier and seems to finally be reaching his ceiling as the senior leader for the Musketeers. I really don’t know how the Hoyas will go about slowing down Scruggs. Dante Harris is Georgetown’s best on-ball defender (at least at the guard position), but at 6’4”, Scruggs’ size would give Harris fits. I’m interested to see what gameplan Patrick Ewing rolls with, but either way, I’m predicting a big day for Scruggs and a Xavier victory.
Will’s Prediction (13-6 on the season): Georgetown 70, Xavier 69
Jacob is wrong. UConn fans are the worst.
Anyway, with Blair back in the starting lineup, the Hoyas will have a balanced scoring attack, and I’m feeling a pretty high scoring game tomorrow, in contrast to the rock fights of the past few games.This matchup against Xavier is a game Georgetown would undoubtedly have lost earlier this season, but now I’m feeling good. It just feels like a game where something weird happens. In conference play, Georgetown has been the best team in the conference in shooting from three, making their shots at a 37.3% clip. Conversely, Xavier is the worst three-point shooting team in the conference, with a 29.7% rate during conference play. Those stats are independent of each other, but it’s just a hunch I have that the game is going to come down to shooting, and surprisingly, I have more faith in the Hoyas to outshoot the other team.
