After an abysmal showing against Creighton on Tuesday, the Hoyas are back in action when they face the Bulldogs of Butler in McDonough Arena at 1:30pm this Saturday. Georgetown will be looking to avenge the loss they took earlier this season in Hinkle Fieldhouse, and they will also be hoping to get back in the W column after two consecutive losses to Creighton and Villanova.
Butler, on the other hand, will be coming off a two-game hot streak, with home wins coming against DePaul and then against a surging St. John’s squad in OT. Outside of this recent resurgence, the Bulldogs have struggled uncharacteristically this year, currently sitting at 7-10 overall and 6-8 in conference play, leaving them at eighth in the Big East.
In their first matchup between the two teams, Georgetown (unsurprisingly) failed to produce offensively in the final stretch of the game, scoring only seven points in the final ten minutes after being up by as much as nine in the second half. The Bulldogs closed the game on a 10-0 run to win 63-55. Sharpshooter Chuck Harris led all scorers with 18 points, while also having five assists and shooting 4-for-8 from three-point land. Unfortunately, no one was able to match this offensively for the Hoyas. Georgetown shot only 33% from the field and an even worse 29% on 2-pt field goals. These numbers are simply not good enough and must improve significantly if the Hoyas want any chance of winning this time around.
On paper, this matchup looks like it will come down to the wire. At the time of writing this, Georgetown and Butler are currently ranked 98th and 99th respectively in KenPom’s current rankings. It doesn’t really get much closer than that, folks. If it does come down to a free-throw shooting contest, Georgetown might have the advantage: Butler currently shoots a Big East worst 61.6% from the line. But, the Hoyas have to make it a game first to even bother worrying about free throws, and that starts with the most basic principle of the game: scoring. In their Tuesday outing against Creighton, the Hoyas managed only 48 points while shooting 28% from the field. Yikes. Georgetown will need to rely on seniors Javhon Blair and Jamorko Pickett to meet their expectations offensively, with the pair only combining for 23 points in the first matchup between the two teams. Blair shot 25% from the field (13% on 2-pt FGs) in what was one of his worst showings of the season. The Hoyas will also have to look for Qudus Wahab, who will have the size advantage against the Bulldogs’ relatively small frontcourt. As always Georgetown will have to limit turnovers; in the previous game against Butler they had 15, and in the recent loss to Creighton they had 24(!!).
Defensively, Georgetown will have to limit shots from Harris and Jair Bolden (who both shoot a high volume of threes at decent rates) and contain forward Bryce Nze, who has led the scoring effort for the Bulldogs as of late. Dante Harris will also have his hands full guarding senior playmaker Aaron Thompson, who is averaging 11 PPG and has a 29.7% assist rate. Butler has a well rounded team with a fair amount of options to go to if one goes cold, with five players averaging double figures in points. One certainty, though, is that the Hoyas must control the glass. In the earlier matchup, Georgetown had a +12 rebounding margin, and with the size advantage they have over Butler, I expect this to continue on Saturday.
All in all, this game really just comes down to which Georgetown team wants to show up to play. If we get the team that notched wins over Providence and Creighton, the Hoyas will certainly be in a good position to win, but if the Hoyas play as they did in its last game against Creighton, it will be trouble. One can only hope that it will be the former.
Charlie’s Prediction: Butler 71, Georgetown 66
Unfortunately, I don’t think it will be the former that shows up. After a hot start from the COVID sabbatical, the Hoyas looked fatigued against a vindictive Creighton squad and there seemed to be a turnover every possession. I imagine Georgetown will once again get off to a hot start, and then a long cold streak of wasted possessions will lead them to fail to hold the lead in the second half. I’m really hoping I’m wrong, but I just can’t see the Hoyas coming out with a win in this one.
Jacob’s Prediction (12-3 on the season): Georgetown 77, Butler 74
Am I confident in this pick? Certainly not. Only a fool would be confident in their ability to predict what this Georgetown team will look like on a nightly basis. That being said, I think the Hoyas are closer to the team that beat Providence two weeks ago than they are to the team that got blown out by Creighton on Tuesday. Let’s also keep in mind that Butler isn’t exactly a team to be scared of. The Bulldogs have six Big East wins, but two of them were against DePaul, so those barely count. Additionally, Georgetown matched up pretty well against Butler back in January and only lost because of their inability to close out games. I think the Hoyas have improved in that regard since then, and I’m willing to bet that they don’t turn in a second consecutive ugly performance. This may come back to bite me, but I’m rolling with the good guys on Saturday.
Will’s Prediction (13-4 on the season): Butler 77, Georgetown 74
I’m not feeling confident in this pick, but I want to be a contrarian to Jacob’s picks. The Hoyas looked gassed on Sunday, and Butler is surging. I agree that Butler isn’t really a threat, but in all honesty, are we either? This game is a coin flip, and I’m pessimistic that despite our size advantage, we’ll keep up the atrocious turnover rate.
