Georgetown played some of their best basketball of the year in a dominant win over St. John’s on Wednesday. The Hoyas will need more of the same if they are to notch their second win in a row against the sixteenth-ranked Villanova Wildcats. The game will be held at noon on Saturday inside the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia, marking perhaps the biggest conference test to date for Ewing and company.
Playing at Villanova hasn’t exactly been kind to Georgetown in recent years. Per this tweet from Bobby Bancroft, the Hoyas haven’t won on the road against the Wildcats since 2011, with all seven losses coming by double-digit deficits.
Is this the year the Hoyas finally break through and wipe that smile off Jay Wright’s face? It’s certainly not going to be easy.
Villanova enters the game at 13-3 overall and 2-1 in Big East play after stealing a road victory against Creighton despite trailing almost the entire game. While the Wildcats may not have the same starpower as years past, they have more than made up for it with maddening consistency. As a matter of fact, ‘Nova has yet to drop a home game this season, with their three losses coming on the road against Ohio State, Baylor and Marquette, all three of which are on track to be tournament teams. This is not to discount how good the Wildcats have been at times either, as Jay Wright’s team showed some teeth in a December upset of then #1 ranked Kansas.
In terms of personnel, Villanova poses a difficult match-up for anyone, much less a depth-deprived Georgetown squad. Alongside junior guard Collin Gillespie, the team’s floor general, the Wildcats usually start four forwards, each of them standing at 6’7” or taller. To make matters worse, it is almost impossible to predict where Villanova’s scoring will come from on any given night. Four of the Wildcats’ five starters, as well as sixth man Justin Moore, average double figure points per game. I get nightmares just thinking about gameplanning to stop that.
My main question is who on Villanova Mac McClung can possibly guard. Gillespie is the only WIldcat starter who McClung is physically comparable to, but guarding the Wildcats’ leading scorer and assist man seems like too tall a task for Mac.
This is what Collin Gillespie can do if not properly contained.
Shutting down Gillespie is essential to slowing Villanova’s offense and forcing them to run their action through someone else. As such, I think Terrell Allen is the more appropriate choice to match-up with Gillespie.
Freshman Justin Moore is the only other ‘Nova guard who plays significant minutes. After starting the team’s first six games, Moore has been relegated to the bench. However, he has upped his production in his new role, averaging 14.4 points per game and shooting a better percentage from the field since the switch.
As for the Villanova forwards, each is capable of being a significant contributor on any given night. That said, Saddiq Bey is the most versatile of the bunch, with his ability to stretch the floor. Cole Swider is also a more than capable three-point shooter, knocking down over 45% of his looks from beyond the arc. As for Jeremiah Robinson-Earl and Jermaine Samuels, the two freshmen are the most physical of the bunch and two of Villanova’s best rim protectors.
In terms of how Georgetown will match-up with Villanova’s length, your guess is as good as mine. The only prediction I can make with relative certainty is that Omer Yurtseven will go toe to toe with Robinson-Earl. Yurtseven not only needs to get out of a scoring slump, but also defend at a higher level than he has been. One thing’s for sure: Georgetown will not win this game if Yurtseven does not show up ready to compete.
As for the rest of the Hoyas, it will take a total team effort to minimize the impact of Villanova’s size advantage. The good news for Georgetown is that Villanova is a relatively poor three-point shooting team. This year they have shot just 32.9% from deep and 22.9% in conference play, good for second to last in the Big East. The Hoyas have struggled to cover three-point shooters at times, but against below average shooting teams such as St. John’s, the Georgetown defense has had much greater success. If the Wildcats have another cold shooting night, it might be enough to let the Hoyas hang around and make it a game.
On the offensive end, Georgetown cannot afford to simply play one-on-one basketball. The ball will need to be moving quickly around the perimeter to find open looks against the ‘Nova defense. Georgetown showed their offensive prowess in the first half against St. John’s, but facing a well-coached Villanova team will be far more difficult.
Nothing is going to come easy on Saturday. The Wildcats have a veteran point guard, a handful of talented freshmen and an experienced coach. Still, to be the best you have to beat the best. If the Hoyas are serious about making the NCAA Tournament, a conference road game against a ranked blue-blood opponent is one heck of a chance to make a statement. Let’s shock the world.
Jacob’s Prediction (13-3 on the year): Villanova 79, Georgetown 69
My gut tells me that Georgetown is going to come ready to play, but it’s hard to win in Philly. Especially when you don’t have the personnel to match-up with the Wildcats. Regardless of what defensive gameplan Ewing draws up, the Hoyas are going to have at least one unfavorable match-up that Jay Wright’s team can exploit. This Georgetown team has responded to adversity well, but I think it’s too much to ask for a road win against a ranked ‘Nova squad.
Will’s Prediction (12-4 on the year): Villanova 83, Georgetown 69
Death, taxes, and impeccably tailored Jay Wright suits. That, and Georgetown losing at Villanova are the consistent things you can count on in life. I don’t mean to sound so pessimistic, but the Hoyas simply don’t have the personnel in terms of length to effectively guard this Villanova team. The Hoyas have talent and heart, but Villanova is back to top form again, and I’m afraid that the only way the Hoyas will be able to pull out a win in Philly is if ‘Nova goes cold from three.
