Mount St. Mary’s. Central Arkansas. Penn State. Which one of these is not like the others?
Here’s a hint: it starts with P and ends with State.
After surviving two buy games against low-major opponents, the Hoyas face their first true test of the year Thursday night as they host the 2-0 Penn State Nittany Lions. Penn State is coming off two cupcakes of their own, though the Nittany Lions were far more efficient than the Hoyas in closing out inferior opponents, defeating both UMES and Wagner by more than 25 points.
The matchup, set for a 6:30 P.M. tipoff, is part of the annual Gavitt Games between the Big East and Big Ten conferences. The Hoyas are 1-2 all-time in the Gavitt Games, with the sole win coming on the road against Illinois last November. Penn State, on the other hand, has only participated twice, including an overtime loss to DePaul last season (gross).
Despite a 14-18 record last year, and a 10th place finish in the Big Ten, Pat Chambers’ squad faced higher expectations coming into the 2018-2019 campaign, and they’ve looked the part through two games. Much of Penn State’s aspirations rest with senior forward Lamar Stevens, who returns after leading the team in points (19.9 per game) and rebounds (7.7 per game) as a junior. The Hoyas will need to keep the athletic Stevens out of the paint and off the glass if Georgetown is to win this game.
Lamar Stevens throws down a put-back jam in Penn State’s win over UMES
This does not mean Stevens’ game is without weaknesses. The 6’8” forward has struggled to add a three-point shot to his game, shooting just 22% from beyond the arc last season. He also has turned the ball over too often at times, which resulted in an abysmal 0.75 assist to turnover ratio last year. We’ll see if Ewing and his staff can get Stevens to handle the ball more than he’d like and settle for perimeter shots. Tasked with this will likely be a combination of Jamorko Pickett and Josh LeBlanc, as both have the height and quickness to stay in front of Stevens while not getting dominated down low.
Joining Stevens in the frontcourt is the 6’9” Mike Watkins, a steadying presence who has started 68 games in his four years with the Nittany Lions. Watkins serves as Penn State’s rim protector and is four blocks per game through two contests this year.
Mike Watkins blocks a UMES lay-up attempt in the team’s win on Nov. 5
One area of concern for Watkins is free throw shooting, as he shot under 50% from the charity stripe last season. This could make Watkins a liability in the case of a close game, and might mean that the Nittany Lions’ best defender would have to watch the final minutes from the bench.
In terms of Penn State’s guard play, both Myles Dread and Myreon Jones have shown they are capable of knocking down the open three, with Dread being the more dangerous of the two. Jamari Wheeler rounds out the Nittany Lion backcourt, mostly playing the role of distributor in the offense as he averaged just 3.6 points while starting 25 games last year.
As for Georgetown, the Hoyas will need to step up their play on both sides of the ball if they are to compete with Penn State. Although Ewing has preached the importance of defense to the media, the team has given up 68 points and 78 points to Mount St. Mary’s and Central Arkansas, respectively. As a result, the Hoyas currently rank 73rd in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom. Penn State ranks 59th in the country in adjusted offensive efficiency, and thus present a stiffer test than Georgetown’s first two opponents, who both rank outside the top 230 in this category. To rise up to the challenge, the Blue and Gray will need to help on interior drives, especially on Lamar Stevens, while not overcommitting and allowing open looks from three.
Offensively, there have been positives and negatives for Georgetown so far. Omer Yurtseven has been dominant, as expected, on the inside, posting back-to-back double-doubles. Yurtseven once again has the size advantage on the inside, and should be force fed the ball in the team’s half-court offense.
However, the Hoyas always are looking to play up-tempo (29th in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom) and as such need their guards to perform up to par as well. After a convincing first game, the Mackinjo duo was notably non-impactful against Central Arkansas. James Akinjo will once again need to command the offense, and Mac McClung has to shoulder some of the scoring load if the Hoyas are to be at their best.
All in all, this game has the potential to swing either way. It is difficult to say whether the Hoyas will play up to the higher level of competition, or whether Georgetown will get exposed in their own building due to another sloppy performance.
Despite all the uncertainty, one thing’s for sure; after Thursday’s game, we’ll have a much better idea who these Hoyas really are.
Jacob’s Prediction (2-0 on the year): Penn State 82, Georgetown 70
Will’s Prediction (2-0 on the year): Georgetown 78, Penn State 75
