Wow. I never expected myself to be writing this article this season, but the Hoyas have made it and the time is now. Your 12th-seeded Georgetown Hoyas open up their NCAA Tournament this Saturday against the 5th-seeded Colorado Buffaloes at Hinkle Fieldhouse.
This is the Hoyas’ first-ever meeting with the Buffaloes and Patrick Ewing’s first trip to the NCAA Tournament as a coach, and it is coming in the most unimaginable circumstances possible. For those of you who forgot, just one week ago Georgetown pulled off the unthinkable and played their best basketball of the season for four straight nights at Madison Square Garden to run the table and capture the Big East Tournament championship.
Now, even though Georgetown might be the trendy upset pick going into the first weekend of the tournament, they are still underdogs, and they are still going to need to battle in order to beat a very good Colorado team. But of course, I’m not expecting any Hoyas fan to know what to expect out of the Buffaloes. So I did the homework, crunched the numbers, and watched the hours of film for you. Here is what we need to see out of the Hoyas if they are going to advance to the Round of 32.
Keys to the Game:
- Contain McKinley Wright IV. It is no secret that McKinley Wright IV is Colorado’s best player and will be everywhere for the Buffaloes. The standout senior guard (or as some might say, Chauncy Billups 2.0) is an extremely strong player, averaging 15.5 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.6 assists per game. To say he is the Buffs’ entire team might not be a huge exaggeration. As much as I hate to say it, this could be yet another Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or Marcus Zegarowski situation for the Hoyas. Chances are, Wright is going to have a good game, but it would be in the Hoyas’ best interests to not let him stand out. Force him out of his comfort zone, don’t give him too much space off of screens, and don’t let him get to the basket too easily. Will it be hard? Yes, but is it doable? 100%. In the end, the play of McKinley Wright IV may very well be the deciding factor in this game.
- Keep up the defensive mindset. The Hoyas need to remain strong on the defensive end in order to have any sort of chance in this game. It is as simple as that. Over their four games at Madison Square Garden, the key to the Hoyas’ success was the fact that they were very clean on defense, allowing an average of just 56.5 points per game. Now this is something that I would have never imagined saying at the beginning of the season, but defense has become arguably the strongest part of Georgetown’s game. This team looks completely different than what we had prior to the COVID pause, and that very well could be attributed to the outstanding defensive play by Jamorko Pickett and Dante Harris. However, Colorado comes into the game with a very strong offense, ranked 19th by KenPom across all of Division 1 men’s teams. Something will have to give. In order to triumph Saturday afternoon, the Hoyas need to keep up the intensity on defense.
- Prove you want it more. I know, another shocker here, but this one is just as important as the others. Of course, this is March and everyone wants to win, but now we’re getting into the intangibles. When the Hoyas have found success this season, they have just proved that they simply want to win more than anyone else. Take Chudier Bile in the championship game against Creighton, for example. It seemed as though every 50/50 ball and every rebound was his. His effort showed on both sides of the ball and it was a key part of their blowout win. Now, do I expect the Hoyas to repeat that performance and win by 25? Of course not. But 40 minutes of hardfought basketball would help the Hoyas faithful rest easy, win or lose.
- Make them play your game. Possibly the only place that the Hoyas have the advantage coming into this game is in height, since Colorado only has one true center on their roster over seven feet tall in Dallas Walton. Over the past week, Georgetown has done an exceptional job of making their opponents feel uncomfortable, and exploiting their size advantage on both sides of the ball would be the perfect way to do that in this game. Walton usually only plays about 15 minutes per game, but the presence of Wahab and Igoefe might force Tad Boyle to keep him in for longer. Either way, the Hoyas need to play their game and exploit the Buffaloes where they can.
Armen’s Prediction: Georgetown 69, Colorado 58
Name a team hotter than Georgetown going into the tournament. Yeah, I’ll wait. But in all seriousness, the best team comparison to Colorado that I have heard is Creighton. Do I think we’re going to win by 25 and only give up 48 points? No. In reality I think this is going to be a dogfight, but in my mind the Hoyas’ confidence coming in is just going to be too much for Colorado to handle. Oh and by the way, this game is being played at Hinkle Fieldhouse or as I like to call it, McDonough West. Ewing has a 3-1 record in that building, in addition to the Hoyas’ 6-2 record there all-time. I can only see that record getting better tomorrow. Either way, we made it. This is March.
Jacob’s Prediction (17-8 on the season): Georgetown 74, Colorado 68
Maybe I’m finally drinking the Kool-Aid. Call me a homer, but Georgetown is playing some damn good basketball right now.
As for Colorado, I’ve never been a Pac-12 believer. And the Buffaloes won neither the Pac-12 Regular Season Title, nor the Pac-12 Tournament. This is not to say Colorado’s a bad team. Heck, going 22-8 and earning a 5 seed in the NCAA Tournament is an accomplishment in itself.
But in terms of this matchup, I like the Hoyas’ chances. We’ve seen how effective Dante Harris can be on both ends of the floor; he’s outplayed some guards who are just as talented as McKinley Wright IV. After Wright, Colorado’s go-to options are all wings. Pickett and Bile have both been playing with a new-found intensity of late. I expect that to continue in a game as big as this one.
There’s certainly a lot of questions heading into this one. Can Georgetown continue to play at such a high level? How will they matchup against a team they’ve never seen before? Are they gassed after the Big East Tournament? We’ll get those answers soon enough. For right now, I’m soaking in the moment for as long as I can!
Will’s Prediction (19-8 on the season): Georgetown 74, Colorado 58
If the Hoyas regress to the mean, that mean is a lot lower than that of the Buffs’. However, I feel confident heading into this game. The Hoyas are still hot, and frankly, if you watched the first half against Creigthon, they weren’t really all that white hot either. The defense was just getting stops and the offense was scoring at a normal output. The second half was a different story.
The Hoyas’ offensive performance during this run hasn’t been anything that’s extreme (like say, shooting 65% from three). This, coupled with the fact that the Hoyas have been 10-4 since the pause makes me think that this is legitimately a reborn team, and not just a fluke. Colorado is similar to Creighton- both are well balanced with dominant lead guards (although those guards play slightly different). The Pac-12 is weak (except for Bill Walton), and I think the Buffs are severely over-valued here. I can’t wait until we all forget about McKinley Wright IV again.
