It’s crunch time.
The biggest stretch of Patrick Ewing’s young coaching career is about to embark. The Hoyas entered the season with tempered expectations (picked to finish 7th in the Big East in the preseason coaching poll). But thanks to Ewing’s superb talent development, a heavy dose of Jessie Govan, and three freshmen who keep proving everyone wrong, the Hoyas find themselves in a position to fight for a spot in the NCAA Tournament.
After the Hoyas’ 76-67 win over Providence, they jumped up 6 spots in the latest NET rankings, now finding themselves at 73. Georgetown finds itself in a great position to keep climbing up the rankings in their next two games. Butler has been slotted at 56 by the algorithm so it’s imperative that this team take care of business at home.
The Hoyas opened Big East play this season by dealing Butler its first home loss at Hinkle Fieldhouse by a score of 84-76. Greg Malinowski torched the Bulldogs by raining in a season-high 26 points on 10-12 shooting from the field and 6-7 from three. Jessie Govan turned in a vintage performance of his own, adding 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 3 blocks.
Even though this was a nice team win, numerous things are different for both teams now. First, Mac McClung missed that first game with a high ankle sprain. McClung adds an entirely new dynamism to Ewing’s offense because it gives him another perimeter player who can create off the dribble for both himself and his teammates. Mac also enhances Georgetown’s ability to attack in transition. McClung’s athleticism and vision allow him to effectively run on the break and create scoring chances.
Butler’s main offensive weapon is junior point guard Kamar Baldwin. Baldwin, while only standing at 6-foot-1, is a versatile scoring guard who averages 17.2 points per game on 44% shooting while grabbing 5.1 rebounds per game. Butler is at its most dangerous when Baldwin is penetrating the defense and wreaking havoc on the inside. This forces the opposing defense to collapse on him, opening shooters such as Paul Jorgensen and Sean McDermott on the outside. In the clip below, Baldwin shows off his devastatingly quick first step and ability to finish through contact at the rim.
Butler has numerous perimeter players who are at their best when hitting shots from behind the arc. The Bulldogs’ three main threats are Jorgenson, McDermott, and Jordan Tucker who collectively shoot 40.7%, 42.9%, and 37% from three. If Butler is on from deep, watch out.
But there is good reason to believe the Hoyas will find success in shutting down the Bulldogs’ attack for a couple of reasons. First, Butler is a completely different team away from Hinkle Field House. The Bulldogs have only won a one conference game on the road (at DePaul) and are only shooting 31.4% from three in their three road games.
A big reason Georgetown came away with the win at Hinkle was Greg Malinowski. It seemed that everything he threw at the rim went in. While it’s probably safe to say Greg will not put up 26 points again, Georgetown’s offense has developed a dangerous versatility. A large reason for this is the reemergence of Jamorko Pickett’s three-point shot. Pickett has been one of Ewing’s most important two-way players the past three games. His stat line against Villanova was fantastic: 10 points on 50% shooting, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 3 steals, and 2 blocks. Yes, you read that correctly. Pickett hit all 4 of his three-point attempts against Providence and was the only player who had sustained success in shutting down Alpha Diallo.
Ewing’s freshman class has been nothing short of outstanding all season long. Josh LeBlanc is a walking double-double who has slowly developed a capable outside shot. Mac McClung is a dynamic offensive threat who can score from anywhere on the court. And James Akinjo is the engine of the offense. But subtly, James’ on-ball and transition defense has tremendously improved. His footwork is smoother, and he had done a much better job of avoiding picking up tick-tacky fouls for needlessly reaching in. His defense will be crucial to slowing down Baldwin.
All in all, Georgetown is a superior team to Butler in close to every aspect of the game. Jessie Govan should find success on the perimeter this game as Butler lacks a big man capable of extending to the perimeter to guard him. And most importantly, Georgetown has seemingly found its legs on defense. The Hoyas have played very sound defensively the past two contests and that will be the key for them moving forward. Everyone knows they can score, but if they can find a consistent defense, this is a Tournament team.
Prediction: Georgetown 81, Butler 72
