Georgetown is heading out west to face the San Diego State Aztecs in the first round of the four-team 2021 Paycom Wooden Legacy. The Hoyas will look to continue their momentum coming off two straight wins against American and Siena.
Game info
TV Network: ESPN2
Location: Anaheim Arena at Anaheim Convention Center
Time: 11:30 pm ET
All time record vs. SDSU: The Hoyas have only played the Aztecs one other time in their history. On December 5th, 1981, 20th-ranked Georgetown defeated San Diego State by a score of 71-53 in Patrick Ewing’s freshman year. Per Patrick Waring of NBS Sports Hour, Ewing finished with 11 points, and another Georgetown legend, Sleepy Floyd, finished with 21 points.
Who we’re playing
The Hoyas head into Thanksgiving facing an Aztecs team that is 3-1 and ranked 40th in the latest KenPom advanced metrics for college basketball. The team’s sole loss came against 27th-ranked BYU (according to KenPom). Their two most recent wins came against Arizona State and UT Arlington, and both were close contests. The Aztecs have a pretty balanced scoring attack with three of their starters averaging double digits so far. They are not a very good three-point shooting team, only averaging 24.6% from beyond the arc thus far.
Opposing Player to Look Out For
Matt Bradley
San Diego State’s lead scorer is a 6’4’’ 220 pound senior transfer from California named Matt Bradley. The lefty shooter averages 14.5 points per game to go along with 4.8 rebounds and 1.8 assists per contest. Bradley has shot 40.9% from the field in four games, but he has only shot 18.2% from beyond the arc so far. His numbers from three have been better in his past college seasons at Cal, so the Hoyas must still look at him as a threat from the outside. Georgetown has notoriously allowed the three ball to kill them in the past, so they must not forget about Bradley on the perimeter based on his misleading numbers. Despite being just 6’4’’, Bradley is the Aztecs’ second leading rebounder. Georgetown’s guards must also box him out in the rebounding game.
How Georgetown Matches Up
The Hoyas actually match up well in this one. As I noted above, San Diego State is not a good three-point shooting team. With the Hoyas being infamously poor in their approach to defend the three, this is a good sign for them. However, the Aztecs do defend the three pretty well themselves. According to KenPom, San Diego State opponents have shot 25.6% from beyond the arc, which is good for 34th in the nation in defensive efficiency. Look for Georgetown to try to get sniper Kaiden Rice some looks early, but if they are not there, then I expect Coach Ewing to try to run his offense through his guards taking it to the hoop and drawing fouls.
Georgetown also averages 39.3 rebounds per game in comparison to the Aztecs’ 35.8 boards per contest. This is a pretty even matchup, but Georgetown’s centers should look to prioritize the boards as always. San Diego State’s tallest player is Nathan Mensah, a 6’10’’ 230 pound senior forward who also happens to be their leading rebounder (7.8 rpg). Georgetown should use their size advantage and surplus of centers to their advantage against a relatively small team.
Additional Notes
Citadel grad transfer Kaiden Rice struggled from beyond the arc in the Hoyas’ first two games, but he exploded for 23 points against Siena on 70% shooting from three. Getting Rice free opportunities from the three-point line is a key part of Georgetown’s offense, so it remains to be seen if Rice will stay hot on Thursday.
Coach Ewing also elected to split the playing time of his three centers—Tim Ighoefe, Malcolm Wilson, and Ryan Mutombo—pretty evenly last Friday against Siena. All three gave the team solid minutes, but it seems like no player has cemented a strong hold as the primary option at the 5 three games into the season. With their size advantage tomorrow, it will be interesting to see how Ewing splits up the minutes between his big men.
Predictions
Jack’s Prediction: Georgetown 76, San Diego State 73
That’s right, I’m predicting a Georgetown upset. All bias aside, I expect the Hoyas to hang tough in tomorrow’s game and pull out a W. I might be in a post-Thanksgiving food coma watching the game, but I am excited nonetheless to see how the staff has prepared for their toughest test of the season so far. If Don Carey continues to shoot well, Dante Harris remains steady with the ball, Aminu Mohammed continues to do it all, and Kaiden Rice stays hot from three, the Hoyas should be in a good spot to pull off the upset. A lot needs to go right, but I am confident it can happen.
Jacob’s Prediction (2-1 on the season): Georgetown 71, San Diego State 65
Call me overly optimistic, but I’m in agreement with Jack here. A lot of people are high on SDSU after their 23-5 campaign a year ago, but the Aztecs lost their three leading scorers from that team. And as Jack mentioned, they haven’t looked particularly impressive in their last couple of outings, squeaking out a pair of narrow victories. My only concern here is that Georgetown will come out flat after traveling across the country and due to the fact that it’s a late tip time, especially coming from the Eastern Time Zone. That being said, I’m sticking with the Hoyas and predicting a statement win for Patrick Ewing & Co.
Will’s Prediction (2-1 on the season): San Diego State 71, Georgetown 60
Matt Bradley scares me. He’s leading the team in scoring with nearly 15 points per game, and yet he still doesn’t look like he’s fully gotten it going on offense yet. He’s shooting just 40.9% from the field, and yet he’s still scoring at a decent clip. I expect him to finally get it going soon, and I’m afraid that it’ll be against the Hoyas. However, there’s cause for optimism, as it seems that Kaiden Rice and Dante Harris got back to being themselves against Siena, so it’s very likely the Aztecs share a similar concern as I do about Bradley in regards to those two. At the end of the day however, I share the concerns Jacob laid out, in addition to being worried about the youthful Hoyas having another Dartmouth-esque dud against SDSU, who I believe are a better overall team.
