Sitting in a tie for seventh place in the Big East with a conference record of 2-5, Georgetown is in need of a serious spark. Tuesday night presents that opportunity, as the Hoyas host the 16th ranked Butler Bulldogs for a 9 p.m. tip.
During non-conference play, Butler looked like one of the best teams in the nation, posting a 12-1 record with their sole loss coming to the Baylor Bears, who currently sit at #1 in the AP Poll. After starting their Big East schedule with three consecutive victories, the Bulldogs hit a rough patch, losing three games in a row. Butler has since stemmed the bleeding, squeaking out an overtime victory over Marquette last Friday.
All season, the key to the Bulldogs’ success has been their defense. They allow just 59.4 points per game, good for eighth in the nation. Remarkably, Butler’s first 16 opponents this year failed to reach 70 points. Since then, the Bulldogs’ defense has been far less threatening, as they’ve given up over 75 points in each of their last four games.
One key factor in this equation could be the status of Butler’s Aaron Thompson. Thompson, the likely favorite for Big East Defensive Player of the Year, missed the Bulldogs’ last game with a left wrist injury.
Thompson’s availability for tonight will be something to track as we get closer to game time.
Another strength for Butler is their team rebounding. Although Bryce Golden is their tallest starter at just 6’9”, the Bulldogs have consistently found a way to out-rebound their opponents. In Big East play, Butler boasts an average rebounding margin of +6.4, good for first in the conference. While rebounding has been a strength for Georgetown for much of this season, that has not been the case over their recent two-game losing streak. Controlling the glass will be a big factor in the outcome of the match-up.
As for the Butler offense, senior guard Kamar Baldwin is no doubt the Bulldogs’ biggest scoring threat. Averaging 16.2 points per game on the season, Baldwin has upped that number to 20.4 points per contest in Big East play. Despite standing just 6’1”, Baldwin is a capable scorer at all levels. After Markus Howard torched Georgetown for 42 points, Baldwin likely has his eyes set on having a similar career night. Ewing and staff has had almost an entire week to put together a game plan; let’s hope they have some idea of how to slow down Baldwin.
While Baldwin is Butler’s top threat, the Bulldogs benefit from having a slew of capable complementary pieces. Wings Sean McDermott and Jordan Tucker are both shooting above 39% from three-point range. Georgetown has made a habit of over-helping on the inside and giving up open looks from deep. That cannot happen against Butler, as McDermott and Tucker will surely take advantage.
On the inside, Golden is joined by Bryce Nze, a 6’7” junior forward. Nze plays bigger than his size, however, and leads the Bulldogs with seven rebounds per game. If Jamorko Pickett is matched-up with Nze as expected, Pickett will need to match Nze’s physicality and be a factor on the glass.
For Georgetown, the Hoyas cannot afford to play into the Bulldogs’ preferred style of basketball. Butler ranks 321 in the country in adjusted tempo according to KenPom, compared to 48th for Georgetown. Butler is a veteran-heavy team and it will be tough to knock them off their game plan. That being said, the Hoyas are at home, and have the benefit of an additional two days off.
Georgetown will need to force turnovers and get out in transition if they are to disrupt Butler’s deliberate style and avoid the Bulldogs’ formidable half-court defense. Beyond that, the Hoyas’ recipe for success is always the same: get Omer Yurtseven and Mac McClung going. Still, Butler is a well-coached team and will likely make a concerted effort to take away Georgetown’s primary options. To win, someone else will have to emerge offensively, my best guess being Terrell Allen. After a few memorable performances in the wake of James Akinjo’s departure, Allen has been less of a factor during Big East play. With the Hoyas’ season on the brink, I expect the veteran in Allen to come out and for him to make a real impact.
Winning against a ranked team is never easy, but that’s the challenge Georgetown faces Tuesday night. With Butler struggling on the road during the last few weeks, an upset victory is certainly not out of the question. If I’ve learned anything as a Georgetown fan, it’s the power of hope.
Jacob’s Prediction (14-6 on the year): Butler 76, Georgetown 68
I’m not lacking in hope, but the rational part of my brain is telling me that this is too much of a hill to climb. Butler is nothing short of a terrible match-up for the Hoyas; they play at a deliberate pace, defend well and shoot the three at an above-average clip. None of that bodes well for Georgetown. I’ve been wrong on my last three picks. Here’s to hoping I reverse-jinx the Hoyas into a victory.
Will’s Prediction (13-7 on the year): Georgetown 76, Butler 75
I’m full-on irrational at this point. Butler’s a good team, but they just haven’t been very convincing for me in what I’ve seen of them. I’m hoping the Hoyas will be able to use their week off to have effectively game-planned for Butler.
