For better or for worse, there will be Georgetown basketball this weekend.
After a lengthy pause due to a positive COVID test within the program, the Hoyas (3-8 overall, 1-5 Big East) will return to action as they host the Providence Friars (9-7, 5-5) at 1pm on Saturday.
While the Hoyas have spent the majority of the last three weeks cooped up in dorm rooms, the Friars have been plenty busy, playing five games in that span. After winning three of their first four conference games, Providence hit a rough patch, losing three in a row to start the new year. Since then, Head Coach Ed Cooley and company have steadied the ship somewhat, winning on the road against #17 Creighton and hanging with #3 Villanova until the Wildcats put the game away thanks to a second-half barrage.
Last time out, Providence escaped with an overtime victory over Marquette behind 31 points from David Duke. The Friars are no strangers to close games, as three of their conference games have gone to overtime, with all three resulting in Providence victories.
As he demonstrated in the win over Marquette, David Duke is Providence’s clear go-to playmaker. In his third season as a Friar, the former top-100 recruit has made noticeable improvements to his game. Duke leads the team in points (19.5 per game) and assists (4.0 per game), while shooting a deadly 43.5% from three-point range. As we’ve seen time and again, Georgetown makes a habit of allowing opposing players to get hot from beyond the arc. That simply cannot happen against a player like Duke. Although he is certainly capable of scoring off the dribble, I would much rather see the Hoyas run Duke off the three-point line and force him to finish over larger Georgetown defenders in the paint.
Though Duke leads the team in scoring, much of what Providence wants to accomplish centers around senior leader Nate Watson. Watson measures in at an intimidating 6’10”, 260 lbs and leads the team in both rebounds and blocks. He’s no stiff on the offensive end either, as he is the team’s second-leading scorer at 18 points per game. When asked about Watson on Thursday, Ewing spoke highly of the Providence center: “He’s physical. Every game I’ve played against him he’s tried to be physical with our bigs.”
Qudus Wahab and the rest of the Georgetown frontcourt will need to match Watson’s physicality and not allow him to control the paint. Wahab was noticeably ineffective in the Hoyas’ last outing, though that loss to Syracuse feels like a lifetime ago. I’m sure the pause has given Wahab more than enough time to think about that performance, and he should come out motivated in a marquee matchup of two traditional big men.
Outside of Duke and Watson, there aren’t many other flashy players on this Providence squad. Junior guard AJ Reeves is another scoring threat but has been brutally inefficient this season, shooting just 31% from the field and 29% from three-point range. Freshman Alyn Breed runs the point for the Friars. After a slow start to the season, Breed has come on strong of late, averaging 13.7 points and 2.3 assists per game over Providence’s last three contests. Sophomore forward Jimmy Nichols (that sounds like one of those auto-generated names in 2K) rounds out the starting line-up, but he is little more than a role player for the Friars.
However, what Providence looks in flash, they more than make up for with smart, fundamental basketball. The Friars turn the ball over just 11.8 times per game, far better than Georgetown’s 15.8 turnovers per contest. Additionally, Ed Cooley’s team prides itself on playing good defense and limiting possessions. The Friars allow just over 70 points per game and rank 282nd in the nation in adjusted tempo according to KenPom. It will be interesting to see which style prevails when they match up against a Hoyas team that prefers to push the pace of the game.
While the Hoyas’ season is on life support, this remains an important game nonetheless. Prior to going on pause for COVID, Georgetown had lost five games in a row. Losing sucks, and I’m sure these guys will be motivated to be back out on the court and hopefully back in the win column. As for Providence, the Friars still have hope of returning to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2018. Marquee wins over Seton Hall and #17 Creighton bolster their tournament resume, but Providence still sits on the outside looking in, according to Joe Lunardi’s most recent bracket projections. The Friars simply cannot afford a bad loss to a Georgetown team that ranks 145th in the NET rankings.
Coming off a three-week lay-off, it’s hard to feel confident in Georgetown’s chances against a battle-tested Providence team. That being said, if Qudus Wahab can outplay Nate Watson in the paint and the Hoyas limit David Duke’s scoring output, there’s a chance the Hoyas could surprise us all and pull off the upset.
Jacob’s Prediction (10-1 on the season): Providence 76, Georgetown 62
As much as I want to talk myself into the Hoyas being especially motivated after the long lay-off, I can’t bring myself to predict the upset. If we’re honest, I can’t think of a single game where Georgetown has looked good for the full 40 minutes. I don’t think that not practicing for a couple of weeks is going to help with that either. I do believe that Wahab will keep Nate Watson under wraps, but I don’t think the Hoyas match up well at all with the Providence wings. Duke and Reeves measure in at 6’5” and 6’6”, respectively, and both possess the ability to score at multiple. As mentioned above, Reeves has been objectively bad this year, but I think the Hoyas will place too much focus on Duke and allow Reeves to post his best performance to date en route to a Friars’ victory.
Will’s Prediction (9-2 on the season): Providence 80, Georgetown 65
Like Jacob, I’ve tried to talk myself into having the Hoyas come out roaring and beating the Friars in an underdog victory, but I just can’t convince myself of that. This Providence squad is just a bit better and tougher than the teams the Hoyas have handled in years past, thanks to the development of Duke and Watson, while the Hoyas have declined from years past. The game ain’t going to be pretty, but damn it, I’m still going to watch.
